What a Donald Trump Presidency Means For Global Action Against Climate Change

At a Senate hearing on Dec. 11th, 1985, a group of senators and scientists called for national and international action to avert a predicted climate warming due to man-made CO₂ emissions, suggesting “a more efficient use of fossil fuels and more dependence on solar energy and other alternatives to oil and coal”. 

Yet, today, roughly 40 years later, the United States is taking a step back. The scenario that concerned most climate activists and climatologists is a reality: Donald Trump, an outspoken climate change denier, will take the helm of the world’s leading economy in January 2025. He has declared his intentions to revoke crucial climate policies introduced under President Biden’s leadership and accelerate oil and gas expansion, which would derail the fragile global emissions reduction and climate action progress.

What a Donald Trump Presidency Means For the Global Energy Transition and Climate Change Action

“A gut punch to U.S. climate action” is how Scientific American describes Trump’s second term at the helm of the world’s biggest historical GHG emitter. “A wrecking ball to global climate diplomacy,” adds Rachel Cleetus, policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

With clean energy companies’ shares tumbling and climate activists and scientists expressing “disappointment and alarm”, the signs of what to expect from Trump’s second term are self-explanatory. In addition, the Republican party’s majority in the Senate and increasing chances to keep a majority in the US House mean the new leadership will have a total grip on Washington, giving Trump unified power to fulfil his plans.

Climate Change Denial and Loosening Environmental Protection Policies

“An expensive hoax” and “one of the great scams of all time” are some of the ways Trump has described climate change and global warming in the past. 

Experts say he will continue from where he left off during his first term, including appointing climate deniers and fossil fuel lobbyists to lead climate research agencies and introducing deep cuts in research budgeting. Project 2025, a policy roadmap written by former Trump administration officials, refers to Biden’s policies as “climate fanaticism” and urges a total overhaul of the federal science agencies responsible for climate and environmental research. The plan also calls for the dismantling or downsizing of federal institutions, which could impede the country’s ability to forecast, track or respond to weather disasters. It remains to be seen whether Trump will follow the roadmap.

His Support for The Fossil Fuels Industry

Throughout his previous administration, he rolled back over 100 federal rules and environmental protection measures on everything from toxic chemicals and endangered species to methane emissions from oil and gas infrastructure, climate standards for power and petroleum producers, requirements to limit water pollution caused by fracking and more. He also sought to open nearly all US waters and protected lands to oil and gas drilling, including in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

According to experts, it will be no different this time since the Supreme Court will back President Trump’s decisions.

Leaving the Paris Agreement

Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement during his first presidential term and damaged the global efforts to address climate change. While the country rejoined under Biden, Trump vowed to pull it out again. Furthermore, the president-elect is expected to influence petrostates, most of which he has good ties with, to follow suit.

A potential withdrawal means the US won’t be required to provide NDCs or climate financing for developing nations.

According to Laurence Tubiana, one of the leading architects of the Paris Agreement, while Trump’s victory was a setback for global climate action, the Paris Agreement “has proven resilient and is stronger than any single country’s policies”. Meanwhile, some experts say that even if Trump withdraws from the Paris Agreement, many US states, cities and corporations will likely remain committed to it. 

Derailing Progress at COP29 Azerbaijan

Trump’s victory comes just before COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where countries will pledge new climate financing targets and kick-start the momentum for more ambitious NDCs in 2025. While the Biden administration is widely expected to try to assure the rest of the world that states and local governments in the US will continue slashing emissions, nothing agreed at the COP29 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference would be binding for the Trump administration.

Developing nations have requested USD 1 trillion in annual financial support to cope better with the climate crisis, and the US, the UK and the EU have recently been urging China and India also to contribute. However, experts warn that since the US won’t practically be able to make any actionable and binding commitments at COP29 Azerbaijan, and China and India might continue looking the other way. As a result, the lack of the US being at the negotiation table will likely undermine any climate change mitigation and adaptation action. 

However, according to Bloomberg, global leaders are making moves behind the scenes, including crisis simulations and secret negotiations, to ensure that not all progress would be lost with Trump at the helm. 

Oil and gas ‘gift of God’, says host Azerbaijan President at COP29

With events in the US aside, another reason why COP29 2024 doesn’t instill confidence in achieving tangible and actionable results is the host country’s actions. The conference’s chief executive and Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister, Elnur Soltanov, has been secretly filmed agreeing to facilitate fossil fuel deals at COP29 and speaking of a future that includes fossil fuels “perhaps forever”.  Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has told the conference that oil and gas are the “gift of God.”

Leaders of climate-vulnerable countries have said they feel discouraged, frustrated that their calls for support may never lead to anything tangible. Papua New Guinea even withdrew from the conference, describing it as “a total waste of time”.

Strong Support For the Oil and Gas Industry

In the lead-up to the elections, Donald Trump described his energy plans as “We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill.” This is unsurprising, considering that according to the Washington Post, he had previously asked oil executives to steer USD 1 billion toward his campaign while promising to relax industry regulations. In the end, the oil and gas industry provided an estimated USD 75 million to Trump and reportedly requested that restrictions on drilling on public lands be ended and the Interior Department’s priorities be shifted away from protecting vulnerable species and ecosystems.

According to S&P analysts, а potential Trump administration would reverse Biden’s pause on LNG exports and start approving new gas projects immediately. He is also likely to ease restrictions on the oil industry’s methane emissions.

According to Carbon Brief, Trump’s second term would result in 4 billion tonnes in additional emissions compared to a scenario where Biden is at the helm. This equals the combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan and would negate – twice over – all of the savings from deploying wind, solar and other clean technologies worldwide over the past five years. In dollar terms, it would likely cause global climate damage worth more than USD 900 billion.

According to Carbon Brief, even without further policy changes in the US, the cumulative total emissions would continue to climb beyond 2030, reaching 15 Gt of CO2e by 2040 and 27 Gt of CO2e by 2050. According to the analysts, these results are significant enough to imperil global climate goals.

Uncertainty For Renewable Energy and Green Technologies

Under President Biden, the US started demonstrating climate leadership, including passing the landmark climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) – the most ambitious green framework in US history. The legislation aims to unlock billions in clean energy subsidies and investment to help fight climate change. 

However, Trump has pledged to repeal the IRA, which he called the “Green New Scam,” and overhaul clean energy initiatives and measures under it, including the existing USD 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases. Although he has criticised EVs, he also admitted to being a “big fan” after Tesla’s head, Elon Musk, endorsed his campaign. Additional measures that could be affected include clean energy subsidies, and regulations on coal-fired power plants and vehicle emissions introduced under the Biden administration.

Trump’s pledges come despite Goldman Sachs’ estimates that keeping the IRA in place would generate over USD 3 trillion in public and private investment in clean technologies by 2030. According to a Wood Mackenzie analysis, a Trump presidency would slash US energy transition investments by USD 1 trillion by 2050.

However, analysts remain split on what Trump’s Cabinet would do regarding clean energy adoption. 

On the one hand, he has been a stark critic of wind power, reportedly saying that the sound of wind turbines “can cause cancer” and vowing to target the offshore wind industry from “day one”. At the same time, he has mentioned being a “big fan” of solar power.

Furthermore, Trump’s plans to halt the US’ clean energy progress will likely face pushback from congressional Republicans with vested interests in green technologies who have benefitted from a clean energy deployment boom. According to estimates, around 80% of the funding has flowed into EVs, batteries and other clean energy technologies in red states, meaning lawmakers and business leaders would want to protect that investment and the jobs they bring.

Since the economic momentum behind renewables is too strong, any attempt by the Trump administration to disregard it would be self-defeating, locking the country into an era from which the world has moved. Despite the public stance, the new Cabinet is likely to realise this, considering that it was under Trump’s first presidency that clean energy investments in the US started to outpace fossil fuels.

The Implications of a Donald Trump Presidency on Asia’s Energy Transition

Experts predict that the election of Donald Trump means that the US will become largely isolated on the global climate-diplomacy stage. According to Bloomberg, another withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could turn environmental leadership over to China. 

President Trump’s plans include retreating from clean technology manufacturing while imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese EVs and solar panels of up to 60%. Tariffs on EVs imported from Mexico, a major manufacturing base for China, could reportedly reach up to 100%. While this will likely hurt China’s economy, it will also give it an edge and open doors for exports elsewhere. In return, some experts believe China might restrict exports of rare earth metals to the US. As a result of the trade wars, there might be significant destabilisation of global supply chains for green technologies.

Some analysts expect Trump’s leadership to inspire fossil fuel-favouring leaders in developing economies to revoke environmental protections and build new plants, which would turn the focus away from clean energy project development.

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Asian oil importers can expect more opportunities for lower-priced crude oil from the US.

For Southeast Asia, the most vulnerable and significantly affected region by climate change, a Trump presidency will also matter greatly due to its negative impact on taming the climate crisis.

Importantly, the head of the World Bank warns that the events taking place in the USA shouldn’t take the focus away from the need of countries like India, Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam to reduce their emissions rapidly. 

Donald Trump’s Win: Not a Knockout For Climate Action

In the first year to officially break the 1.5°C, a climate change denier will replace one of the greenest presidents in US history. According to an analysis by Carbon Brief, if the US, the second-leading current emitter and the biggest oil and gas producer and exporter globally, misses its 2030 target by a wide margin, which is currently the most likely scenario, it could end any hope of keeping global warming below 1.5°C.

According to the UN, current global policies would reduce emissions by 2.6% by 2030 – a fraction of the 43% reduction required to achieve the Paris Agreement target. As a result, we are now on course for double the temperature increase – at approximately 3.1°C by 2100. 

Yet, experts are clear: even if the US pulls out of the Paris Agreement and other climate treaties, it doesn’t mean the country will stop immediately. Half of US states, representing more than half the US population, have already committed to 100% clean energy. Analysis shows that even without federal support, continued, high-ambition actions from non-federal actors can achieve over 48% of emissions reductions by 2035. Furthermore, US state-level actors are reportedly already collaborating with China and other stakeholders to continue advancing climate leadership.

The EU and China are well aware that global climate action is now in their hands. With or without the US, the signs are that the rest of the world will remain committed to climate change adaptation and mitigation. It will just have to do more.