Major decisions at the COP27 UN climate summit in Sharm El Sheikh will not pass without the tacit approval of Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi. With both countries deeply vulnerable to climate impacts, incurring extreme weather losses of +$20 billion and $2 billion each, they are determined to stay committed to long-term net-zero climate targets, China before 2060 and India in 2070. This assessment seeks to separate the short and long-term energy trends in both countries – recognising that coal plays an important role in the power mix of both countries yet identifying the recent investments and policy shifts that suggest rapid shifts in their energy portfolios through the 2020s and into the early 2030s.