Global demand for metallurgical coal has plateaued and is now on a slow decline through 2030 – falling faster than thermal coal. While India and Southeast Asia offer short-term growth, they cannot offset the steep drops underway in China and the EU, where green steel policies, electric arc furnaces, and scrap-fed production are rapidly reshaping the market. Despite this reality, 273 new met coal projects (580 million tonnes of new capacity) remain in the pipeline, creating significant stranded asset and financial risk for financiers, miners, and governments.

Key insights from the 2026 briefing:

• Demand peaked in 2025 – the IEA projects a decline to 1,061 Mt by 2030, with China alone dropping by 10%.
• India won’t save the market – even with 5.5% annual growth, it cannot offset China + EU declines.
• Stranded asset risk is real – $22BN in recent financing and 270+ new mines face oversupply.
• Green hydrogen is coming – China is commercialising fast; viability would end coking coal demand entirely.