Strengthening Energy Resilience to Overcome Power Outages in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is becoming one of the world’s fastest-growing electricity markets, second only to India. The IEA estimates energy demand across the region to double by 2050. However, according to the ASEAN Centre for Energy, around 82% of this rising demand will be met by fossil fuels. ASEAN member states even expect the region’s natural gas import dependency to reach as high as 93%, with annual import bills potentially exceeding USD 200 billion. At the same time, the region boasts vast but largely untapped renewable energy potential, which the IEA estimates at 20 TW, roughly 55 times the region’s current generation capacity.

This presents the countries in the region with two main priorities: meeting demand growth by replacing fossil fuels with cheaper, cleaner and more secure renewables, and ensuring a steady, reliable energy supply by improving grid infrastructure to overcome the ever-more common power outages. Experts are clear that following such a path will unlock billions in economic opportunities, advance the region toward its climate goals and improve the economic and societal well-being of its population. However, doing so requires not only investing in grid infrastructure buildup and modernisation, but also strengthening the power system’s resilience to the worsening impacts of climate change — the leading reason for power supply disruptions in recent years.

Grid Disruptions and Power Outages Have Proven Major Challenges For ASEAN Countries in Recent Years

The ASEAN region has a unique geography, combining island and mountainous areas, posing significant challenges for countries in ensuring universal electricity access. Since the 1990s, governments have been working on the ASEAN Power Grid (APG) initiative to interconnect their power systems, harness the region’s vast clean energy resources and facilitate cross-border electricity trade. 

A unified ASEAN power grid will be able to connect a population approaching 780 million by 2040 and a USD 10 trillion regional economy. The end goal of the initiative is to ensure uninterrupted power and its timely distribution to where it is most needed. In recent years, governments have made strides, with current goals aiming for achieving 100% electricity access by 2040. 

However, to date, the initiative has faced various financial and technical challenges — from failing to mobilise the over USD 750 billion needed to complete the project to overcoming issues such as varying levels of grid sophistication across individual countries, different regulatory standards and national policies and more.

Furthermore, achieving this goal doesn’t give ASEAN nations the security that it will have an uninterrupted power supply at all times. 

Ember notes that every country in the region faces unique power reliability challenges that undermine grid reliability and performance. Governments across the region have also had mixed success in tackling the problem.

While Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand have managed to keep outages below one hour per customer annually, the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam have cut interruptions to just a few hours. Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar face the longest outages due to ongoing grid development.

Ember’s analysis warns that these power outages are taking a significant toll on countries’ economic output, which could amount to USD 2.3 billion annually by 2040 if unaddressed.

The Escalating Impacts of Climate Change as a Threat to Energy Systems in Southeast Asia

Over the past two years, major power failures have caused outages across Indonesia, including Java, Bali and Sumatra, leaving businesses and households in the dark for up to two days at a time. The power outage in Bali alone affected over 1.8 million customers of state utility PLN, shutting several power plants down simultaneously. The events brought daily life to a standstill, causing substantial economic losses and disrupting normal operations in government buildings, hospitals, hotels and airports. Some estimates suggest that high-impact outages in Indonesia can cost between USD 1-3 million per hour in lost revenue. 

The reasons for the blackouts included disruptions to high-voltage power lines, underwater transmission cables connecting different islands and extreme weather events damaging power infrastructure. According to experts, weather-related disasters have been the most common, and the situation is only going to worsen as the climate crisis escalates and the country continues to rely on legacy infrastructure. Heavy wind and rainfall, for example, account for over 95% of weather-related power outages in the Java-Bali region, while the February floods in South Sulawesi reportedly shut down over 450 electricity substations.

The Philippines is another prime example of the threat that extreme weather poses to energy systems, with powerful typhoons routinely damaging transmission towers and requiring week-long or month-long repair work. As a result, the country, which is usually struck by over 20 typhoons each year, has to deal with cascading social and economic impacts and find ways to quickly restore power supply to entire provinces and navigate significantly complicated post-disaster recovery activities.

IEA: ASEAN’s Power Grid to Face Mounting Challenges as Climate Change Worsens

According to the IEA, as the climate crisis worsens, ASEAN’s power grid will face mounting stress. For example, high temperatures and heatwaves can critically impact solar PV and electricity networks, negatively affecting solar power generation efficiency and damaging cells and other materials.

Similarly, natural gas-fired power plants, for which Southeast Asia has recorded the highest number of final investment decisions worldwide this decade, can also experience a decline in power generation. 

While the IEA notes that the impacts of extreme heat are currently limited, they are only poised to grow in severity as solar PV and natural gas-fired power plants experience more frequent extreme heat events in the coming decades. In a high-emissions scenario, nearly 70% of solar PV and over 90% of natural gas-fired power plants would experience more than 20 hot days above 35°C by 2100, a notable increase from current levels. 

The extreme heat and the growing demand for cooling would also significantly increase the stress on electricity grids, leading to power lines heating up and expanding, and causing short circuits in underground power cables. According to the IEA, critical components such as transformers, inverters and substations will also face an increased risk of failure due to overheating. 

Heavy rainfall and flooding events, which have doubled or even tripled for some countries in the region in the past 50 years, can significantly disrupt coal and critical mineral mining operations, the IEA warns. Climate models indicate that, of the 25 countries that have the highest risk of extreme rainfalls by the end of the century, 10 are in Asia. 

According to the IEA, changes in precipitation patterns also necessitate building climate resilience of hydropower, a crucial part of the energy mix for countries in the region.

Last but not least is the intensification of tropical cyclones, which also threatens energy security for countries in the region, as it can directly disrupt the physical resilience of energy systems, inflicting damage from severe winds, heavy rainfall, landslides and storm surges. According to the IEA, around half of Southeast Asia’s solar PV and hydropower capacity is situated in cyclone-prone areas compared to a global average of 15%. In addition, over 40% of wind turbines and more than 20% of electricity grids are at risk of operational disruption from tropical cyclones.

Strengthening Energy Resilience Promises To Unlock Huge Economic Gains For ASEAN

According to Ember, reliable grids are key to sustaining ASEAN’s economic growth. The experts estimate that if ASEAN nations prioritise investing between USD 4 billion and USD 10.7 billion in smart grids, they can avoid USD 2.3 billion in annual economic losses by 2040. 

Beyond strengthening reliability, smart grids can reduce renewable integration costs, unlock green industrial growth and facilitate regional power trade, ultimately positioning ASEAN to meet its climate goals while securing competitiveness in the global low-carbon economy.

In terms of cost savings, an analysis by Transition Zero finds that the ASEAN Power Grid can help regional economies reduce the need for new storage and gas capacity worth at least USD 3 billion. In total, the experts estimate that advancing regional grid interconnection could lessen the need for gas capacity in the Philippines and Vietnam, two of the countries with the largest gas expansion plans in the region, by up to 44% and 21%, respectively.

According to Rystad Energy, developing the ASEAN Power Grid can unlock up to 25 GW of renewable and energy storage projects, reducing power capacity needs by up to 37 GW by 2035. The Institute for Essential Services Reform finds that the APG could slash overall electricity supply costs by around 20% compared to reliance on individual power systems. 

According to some estimates, ASEAN nations that participate in regional power grid interconnections could unlock GDP growth of 0.8% to 4.6%. Furthermore, electricity trade, enabled by the APG, can significantly contribute to the trade balance of exporting countries. For example, in 2023, electricity was Laos’ most exported product, accounting for USD 2.15 billion or a quarter of the country’s total exports of USD 8.7 billion.

According to Christopher Len, acting coordinator of the Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme at the Yusof Ishak Institute, developing the grid can help ensure a resilient energy supply across the region. 

“The grid makes it easier to move surplus renewable energy across borders, cutting dependence on volatile fossil fuels and supporting cheaper, more secure energy. In short, cleaner power at lower cost, with a resilient supply. It’s about sustainable growth in a volatile global energy landscape.”

IEA: Better Planning Key to Building Energy Resilience

According to the IEA, technical and structural improvements to energy infrastructure, diversification of energy sources and innovative digital solutions can help address the immediate impacts of extreme weather events and enable energy systems to recover quickly.

Among the most important steps in this process is shifting how energy infrastructure is planned and developed so that Asian governments can mitigate climate impacts while also supporting the energy transition and security. 

According to the IEA, if the region prioritises investments in a climate-resilient energy system, it can ensure it is ready to deliver an uninterrupted power supply when the next disaster strikes. Given that climate change’s impacts are growing in frequency and severity, governments must design robust energy systems that can withstand looming shifts in climate patterns and continue to operate despite immediate shocks from extreme weather events. Since no energy system can be guaranteed to withstand mounting climate disasters at all times, it is imperative for Asian countries also to improve their ability to quickly restore the operational capacity of their power infrastructure.

According to the IEA, another integral step to building resilience is creating a robust climate database, conducting scientific assessments, and integrating climate resilience into energy system policies, all of which are currently areas where Southeast Asian countries can improve.

Mobilising private sector investment, insurance, and public financing instruments to enhance energy systems’ abilities to better withstand and recover from extreme weather events, ultimately strengthening their role in the clean energy transition and improving resilience, is also critical.

According to experts, scaling up investments in industry-scale battery storage solutions to address intermittency issues is also of massive importance. This would require balancing the increasingly variable supply with rising energy demand, effectively keeping grids stable and preventing outages, including amid extreme weather events that require higher power off-take. Integrating advanced technology to monitor and measure system performance on an ongoing basis and to identify potential weaknesses in advance, ensuring consistent supply and round-the-clock maintenance rather than expensive, time-intensive repairs, is also critical.

The Bottom Line: More Resilient Power Systems Critical For ASEAN’s Energy Security, Economic Growth and Well-being 

Strengthening the energy system’s resilience and improving the reliability of power grids across Southeast Asia would enable the region to harness its vast, but geographically dispersed, renewable energy resources and unlock a range of economic gains, including new jobs, uninterrupted business operations and lower electricity costs. As a result of the larger, more flexible grid system, the region’s dependence on fossil fuel imports would be significantly reduced, thereby notably improving its energy security. Last but not least, it would allow countries to share power with their neighbours during a technical failure or an extreme weather event, ensuring continued access to basic services, easing disaster relief operations and protecting the most vulnerable.

Fortunately, policymakers, private sector stakeholders, and international organisations and partners have the tools to avoid or minimise climate change’s impact and to improve energy systems’ resilience, ultimately ensuring a more secure, cleaner and economically viable future for Asia’s power sector. The question is addressing the need to.