2026 Thailand elections: Climate and Energy Take a Back Seat

The elections in Thailand, held on Feb. 8, concluded with what most experts consider a surprising result, defying the predictions of most opinion polls. The Bhumjaithai party, led by Anutin Charnvirakul, grabbed over 190 seats, allowing it to form the next government, albeit with coalition partners. The outlook for the new Thai government is to continue the current course of action, focusing on security and stability. Climate action and the clean energy transition, on the other hand, might take a back seat. Yet the unique mix of challenges Thailand faces — from escalating climate risks to energy insecurity and worsening air pollution — makes the clean energy transition not a distraction from security and stability, but a prerequisite for both. 

The Energy and Power Sector Priorities of the New Government 

Experts have described Anutin’s Bhumjaithai party as an old-style formation, with little ideological identity and strong loyalty to the monarchy, compared to the youthful, more progressive People’s Party, which polls identified as the more likely winner. However, neither political formation focused specifically on climate change, sustainability, or net zero during the debates in the run-up to the elections. 

The Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul campaigned primarily on nationalism, economic stability and security, largely ignoring environmental policy in his agenda. As a result, experts remain doubtful that the new leadership will place Thailand’s clean energy transition at the heart of its political agenda or recognise climate action as a key priority. 

However, Anutin’s remarks during his keynote speech at the Sustainability Expo 2025 also give reasons for cautious optimism. The Prime Minister described sustainability as no longer an option, but the nation’s “lifeline”. He also stressed the importance of looking at sustainability efforts through the lens of economic resilience, a sustainable environment and quality of life and social well-being. Importantly, he announced the Thai government’s readiness to support this transition with concrete measures, including incentives for businesses adopting clean energy and environmentally friendly manufacturing processes.

Pledge by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul

Anutin’s government previously pledged to move toward a low-carbon society and net-zero emissions by 2050 and prioritise solar power expansion, EV adoption, industrial energy efficiency and low-carbon manufacturing. Current government policy frameworks view environmental sustainability primarily as part of the broader national development agenda alongside economic growth and security, rather than as a standalone political agenda. Existing environmental policy proposals and priorities include clean-air laws and regional pollution cooperation, for example, while the country is also developing plans for carbon pricing and emissions-trading mechanisms.

Thailand’s recent NDC update aims for a 47% emissions reduction by 2035 from 2019 levels, but is partly dependent on international financial and technological support. The country also aims to peak its emissions before 2030.

Still, according to analysts, following the election win, the government is likely to advance decarbonisation primarily through technical policy and industrial strategy, rather than as a central pillar of its political agenda. The green economy, which is mentioned under a broader competitive growth framing, EVs and supply chains, which Anutin has previously identified as priorities, are likely to be considered more as investment-attraction tools rather than a part of a climate-first agenda. Furthermore, there are indications that fossil fuel dependence is unlikely to decline significantly in the short term.

Thailand Remains Heavily Reliant on Fossil Fuels, but Mounting Climate Risks, High Power Costs and Energy Security Issues Call For a Change

Thailand’s energy mix is heavily dominated by fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, which accounts for around half of all electricity generation. In total, Ember estimates that fossil fuels account for 85% of Thailand’s electricity generation, with its power sector emissions nearly doubling since 2000 due to increasing reliance on gas.

Going forward, the share of imported LNG in Thailand’s gas mix is expected to climb to 60% by the mid-2030s from around 40% in 2024. For example, during the 47th ASEAN Summit held last year, Thailand committed to spending USD 5.4 billion annually on US oil and LNG. 

The country currently boasts the largest operational LNG import capacity in ASEAN, with two LNG regasification terminals totalling 19 million tons per year. While they are sufficient to meet projected gas demand through 2037, the government plans to build a third LNG terminal that would begin commercial operations in 2029 and cost over 60 billion THB (USD 1.93 billion). Concerns are rising that the project will not only bind the country to continued dependence on gas imports but also transfer the high construction and operating costs to consumers through higher electricity bills, as well as cause significant environmental harm and delay the country from achieving its net-zero goal.

Meanwhile, Thailand plans to integrate ammonia co-firing and other fossil fuel-based solutions, decisions that seem to be influenced by Japan. According to experts, the moves will lock the country into decades of increased emissions, high power costs, and undermined energy security.

For example, in its dedicated report, “Thailand: Turning Point for a Net-Zero Power Grid,” BloombergNEF estimates that deciding to procure ammonia could cost Thailand seven to 17 times more than coal in 2030, and about seven to 11 times more by 2050. 

These plans come despite the fact that Thailand remains at the front line of climate change and among the most vulnerable countries in the region to extreme weather events. Just in November 2025, heavy monsoon rains unleashed widespread flooding that affected 1.7 million people, causing an estimated USD 16 billion in damages, and threatening USD 400 million in losses per month across high-value export commodities.

According to researchers, emission cuts from ammonia co-firing contradict the country’s net-zero target. A 20% ammonia co-firing rate, the most feasible scenario, will generate more CO2 emissions than an average unabated gas plant in the ASEAN countries.

Furthermore, the country, and particularly Bangkok, is continuously struggling with poor air quality. According to the State of Global Air 2025, the deaths attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure in Thailand have been continuously rising.

Plans for scaling up ammonia co-firing solutions will worsen the problem. A study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) finds that displacing coal with ammonia substantially increases total pollutant emissions, with a 20% co-firing combustion rate increasing concentrations of PM2.5 and other harmful substances by 67%. At a 50% co-firing rate, the increase is 176%.

Renewables, Particularly Solar, Can Alleviate the Air Quality Issues and Unlock Huge Economic Gains and Cost Cuts

BNEF notes that solar, solar paired with battery storage technology, and onshore wind are already cheaper than ammonia co-firing in Thailand, with the gap projected to continue widening over the next five years. The experts also note that the country’s solid solar market fundamentals, including being a leading regional solar manufacturer and having proven project development know-how, significantly influence the declining LCOE for solar power. 

According to BNEF, scaling up renewables remains the most economically viable pathway for Thailand to meet its decarbonisation and energy transition goals, as well as boost domestic energy security and affordability.  

Furthermore, Ember estimates that increasing solar power capacity by 89% and battery storage by 60% compared to the targets outlined in Thailand’s draft revised power development plan 2024 (RPDP), which aims for 51% renewable energy generation by 2037, will unlock USD 1.8 billion in cost savings. Aside from lowering system costs, the move will also help the country accelerate its emissions-reduction journey and significantly enhance energy security by reducing reliance on volatile and unreliable fuel imports.

In fact, Thailand is among the Asian countries that have achieved the largest savings on fossil fuel imports through the adoption of renewables, according to the IEA.

Yet, despite the clear evidence of the economic viability, climate and environmental benefits of renewables, as of 2024, just 15% of Thailand’s electricity was generated from low-carbon sources, way below the global average of 41%. Furthermore, the share of wind and solar was just 5%, a third of the global average (15%). 

Thailand’s Government Has the Blueprint to Accelerate Clean Energy Deployment and Solve Key Economic, Energy Security and Air Quality Issues — If It Chooses to Act

Thailand ranks 23rd globally in electricity demand. As its economy continues to grow and electricity demand increases, driven by industry, urbanisation and the expansion of digital infrastructure, the government will have to find ways to ease the strain on the energy system without compromising the country’s climate goals and the population’s well-being.

Thailand has already achieved massive progress in deploying residential solar systems, with installed capacity increasing by 32% on year in 2023. Under the “Quick Big Win” energy initiative, the market segment is expected to continue thriving thanks to supportive measures like income tax deductions of THB 200,000 (USD 6,400) offered to as many as 90,000 participating households. Small-sized community projects and large-scale floating solar farms are also expected to receive significant support. 

But the environmental, climate, economic and energy security challenges facing the country necessitate more urgent action. According to BNEF’s dedicated report, Thailand should consider an orderly phaseout of its thermal power plants alongside expanding clean power, including enabling the participation of flexible power supply and demand sources. Other crucial steps the new government can take include implementing power market reforms, such as enabling a competitive ancillary services market, conducting regular energy storage auctions and accelerating the deployment of battery-based solutions to address the variability of renewables. Utilising the growing interest from corporations in clean power procurement to attract more private investment in the deployment of renewables, energy storage and the power grid is also advisable. Last but not least, the analysts advise improving power capacity expansion planning to avoid future cost burden. 

These are all steps that would help Anutin’s government achieve its goal of opening new economic opportunities and improving the quality of life for all citizens. 

Furthermore, pursuing that path would also score popularity points for the new leadership. In a dedicated survey, Thai environmental groups found that up to 88% of respondents are affected by environmental problems, with air pollution and high PM2.5 concentrations the leading concerns, followed by climate change.

This presents an opportunity for Anutin’s government to take Thailand in a new direction and defy analysts’ expectations by setting a new standard for green growth that protects prosperity, security, and public health.