Asia and Japan’s Energy Transition Not on Path to Net Zero

To achieve net zero, and reduce the risk of the worst climate impacts, Asia needs to decarbonise, and fast. The continent is now responsible for the majority of global greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption, with countries like China, India and Indonesia growing in their fossil fuel consumption. 

Unfortunately, despite the growing threat of extreme weather events linked to climate change, which are costing countries in the region billions, progress on decarbonisation has been slow. Countries like China are still building coal-fired power plants, Vietnam is still expanding fossil gas and Japan is still financing fossil fuels.

“None of the measures necessary to decarbonise the power sector, phase out coal-fired power generation and triple renewable energy and double energy conservation as required by international agreements have been taken,” said Mie Asaoka, president of the nonprofit Kiko Network.

The challenge is that Asia is lagging on the energy transition, and that regional net-zero plans are full of loopholes and false solutions that could harm the region’s climate. Japan, as a so-called regional leader, is playing a central role in holding Asia back.

Fossil Fuels and Japan Energy Transition Policy

It was not too long ago that Japan was a climate leader. Earlier this century, the country made remarkable progress on reducing CO2 emissions, cutting emissions by around 25% since 2013 – among the highest in the world. Much of that is due to the rapid growth in solar from 2012 to 2022, improvements in energy efficiency and less consumption of fossil gas. Unfortunately, in recent years, Japan’s progress has stalled, as the expansion of solar has slowed, and wind power has yet to be deployed on a wide scale. 

“The share of electricity generation from renewable energy sources doubled from 10.9 percent in 2013 to 21.7 percent in 2022, acting as a key driver of CO2 emission reductions,” said Teruyuki Ohno, executive director of the Tokyo-based Renewable Energy Institute. Ohno states that improvement has “stagnated”.

While Japan’s has a new plan, the so-called Green Transformation (GX) policy, to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, what is concerning is that the plan mainly promotes technologies like ammonia and hydrogen co-firing and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) ahead of clean energy options like wind and solar.  

Moreover, the GX and national energy plants continue to rely on so-called zero-emissions thermal power. This, however, involves the burning of coal and LNG in power generation, with emissions reduced via CCS, or via co-firing with ammonia, both unproven and costly technologies.

“Japan’s GX strategy is pure greenwashing,” said Ayumi Fukakusa, deputy executive director of Friends of the Earth Japan. “It will block the transition to renewable energy, worsen the climate and energy crises and harm communities and ecosystems.”

Japan and Asia’s Energy Transition Initiative

In early 2023, the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) was launched by Japan’s then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as a “platform for cooperation towards carbon neutrality/net-zero emissions in the Asia region.” Its goals are to achieve net zero through various pathways and support Asian countries’ decarbonisation.

Imported Fossil Fuels

While that sounds good on paper, unfortunately, in reality, what AZEC is aiming to do is to push the same technologies Japan is using domestically – CCS, co-firing, LNG and ammonia – abroad, to the 11 member countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. 

“Technologies like fossil hydrogen or ammonia are only designed to serve the interests of fossil fuel corporations,” said Fukakusa.

It’s notable that some of the world’s largest fossil fuel companies – ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco, CNOOC, Petronas and Pertamina, can often be found joining AZEC events and conferences. They have a strong interest in maintaining the status quo and greenwashing their fossil fuel based false solutions. 

Lagging on Asia’s Energy Transition

Source: Our World in Data

It does not have to be this way. An analysis from BloombergNEF found that Japan can improve it’s energy security and achieve net zero by 2050 without relying on LNG, CCS, co-firing or even nuclear power. There’s more than enough wind and solar to power the archipelago. 

“Fossil fuel power generation accounts for more than 70% of Japan’s electricity generation today,” said Isshu Kikuma, Japan senior associate at BloombergNEF. “Instead of pursuing costly unproven approaches such as retrofitting existing coal power plants for co-firing with ammonia, Japan would be better served accelerating the deployment of geothermal, solar and wind.”

To do that, Japan and Asia need a strategic energy plan and science-based climate policies, ones that prioritise proven solutions like wind and solar, and move the region away from fossil fuel dependent solutions like CCS and co-firing. It’s an opportunity for Japan to reclaim its position as a regional climate leader.

“Now is the time for Japan to address the climate crisis head-on by recognising climate science and international agreements, further promoting energy conservation, thoroughly discussing a roadmap for maximising renewable energy and phasing out coal-fired power by the early 2030s at the latest,” said Asaoka.