Lack of US Engagement Impacting 2025 G20 South Africa Summit

Developments are intensifying in the months before the 2025 G20 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, to be held from Nov. 22-23. 2025’s G20 summit, the 20^th of its kind, will be the first held on African soil and the fourth in the Global South, following Indonesia, India and Brazil. The G20, bringing together the world’s major economies, annually addresses critical global challenges.

The G20 process is also enriched by the contributions of diverse engagement groups, including robust participation from civil society organisations advocating critical environmental and social issues.

On May 26, just five days after a tense meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa extended an olive branch of peace. In a statement, he commended ongoing US-South African relations. He also announced that “President Trump agreed that the US should continue playing a key role in the G20, including attending the G20 Leader’s Summit,” later this year. Media outlets ran the story, including a lot of speculation.

Fair enough. But there hasn’t been a subsequent, direct public announcement from the Trump administration specifically confirming his personal attendance beyond the South African president’s statement of US participation.

In fact, sentiment from Washington indicates apathy toward the meeting. On July 8, a US Treasury spokesperson said that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would skip the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in South Africa the following week. Instead, he would attend the World Expo 2025 in Osaka, Japan. This marks the second time this year that Bessent has opted against attending a preliminary 2025 G20 Johannesburg summit. South Africa is serving as the group’s president this year. Bessent’s decision to forgo the G20 finance meetings and the White House’s reluctance to confirm if Trump will attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit is a possible indication of how developments could unfold in November. Signs of the administration’s anti-climate change commitment began on President Trump’s first day in office this term.

Trump Administration’s Anti-Climate Change Agenda

On Jan. 20, Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement. This involves halting all related financing and terminating the US International Climate Finance Plan. Withdrawal takes effect within one year after invocation. This is the second time Trump has pulled the US out of the global agreement. He withdrew during his first term in 2017, while President Joe Biden signed the US back up on Jan. 20, 2021.

The US also announced its withdrawal in March from the Climate Loss and Damage Fund, established at COP28, which aims to compensate developing countries for climate impacts. This decision has been heavily criticised for undermining international cooperation.

Further complicating matters, Trump’s “America First” approach and disengagement from multilateral frameworks are seen as diminishing trust among G20 countries, which is essential for effective cooperation. Criticism of South Africa’s G20 leadership for promoting “Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability” and focusing on climate and DEI activities could also undermine the host country’s efforts. The G20, as the premier forum for multilateral cooperation, will likely struggle to sustain broad representation and effective policy coordination without constructive US engagement.

2025 G20 Johannesburg Summit: Agenda and Challenges

South Africa’s G20 Presidency aims to place African concerns at the forefront, including strengthening disaster resilience and response to climate-induced disasters, ensuring debt sustainability for low-income countries, mobilising finance for a just energy transition, as well as strengthening multilateral development banks and leveraging private capital. It also aims to harness critical minerals for inclusive growth and sustainable development.

Underpinning these ambitious goals is the critical role of independent institutions such as supreme audit institutions (SAIs), which are vital for ensuring transparency and accountability in public finance, thus rebuilding trust and achieving sustainable development goals. However, the US administration’s anti-climate change agenda directly challenges these priorities, particularly those related to climate finance and sustainable development.

Strategies for Other G20 Members to Offset Negative US Influence

Despite potential US disengagement or obstruction, other G20 members should continue pushing for climate action, employing several strategies. First, strengthening intra-G20 coalitions, like the EU, BRICS and Global South. Secondly, BRICS nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — and other Global South countries can continue to gain influence and push their agendas. Brazil, for instance, is already positioning itself as an advocate for the Global South in climate policy. The 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), will be held in Belém, Brazil, from Nov. 10-21 this year.

Third, G20 nations could focus on plurilateral initiatives and national action. Even if multilateral agreements are undermined, countries can pursue plurilateral initiatives that address specific aspects of decarbonisation. Many countries have already submitted new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2025, charting their course toward net-zero emissions. While Trump might reduce US ambition, other major emitters like Canada, Japan and Brazil have set new targets that contribute significantly to global reductions.

Offsetting Increased Pressure

With potential cuts in US foreign aid and climate finance contributions, pressure will increase on other developed countries to mobilise additional resources and support. In response, they could mobilise climate finance independently from the US.

The focus will likely shift to strengthening multilateral development banks (MDBs) and enhancing other funding mechanisms to support developing countries, as well as leveraging private capital. There’s also an emphasis that the G20 will not be “rendered irrelevant” by US policies, indicating a determination among other members to push forward regardless.

Finally, the Trump administration’s anti-climate agenda poses significant challenges to the G20’s climate efforts, particularly by reducing US financial contributions and undermining multilateral trust. However, the other 19 members can counter this influence by strengthening their own coalitions, prioritising national and plurilateral climate action, mobilising finance independently and maintaining their commitment to the overarching goals of sustainability and a just transition.