Why Southeast Asia needs a tailored approach to electrification at COP31

As the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) starts Monday in Antalya, Türkiye, Southeast Asia stands out as a stark example of the need for countries dependent on fuel imports to electrify their economies with renewable power.

The COP31 Presidency is focusing negotiations around its proposed “35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge.” The aim is to increase electricity’s share of global final energy consumption from around 20% today to 35% by 2035 to reduce carbon emissions while supporting economic growth and energy security.

ASEAN countries exemplify the importance and timeliness of such an approach. Deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to ASEAN importers through the Strait of Hormuz fell by around 75% in the first eight months of 2026, forcing buyers to secure replacement cargoes on the spot market at higher prices, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Rex Amancio, Asia-Pacific Regional Lead at the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA), told Energy Tracker Asia that the Hormuz crisis has changed how governments in the region view electrification.

“It’s a huge wake-up call for governments that it’s high time for us to strengthen and develop our domestic indigenous renewables,” he said.

From energy access to energy security

Across much of Southeast Asia, electrification has traditionally focused on extending grid access to remote communities, while shifting transport, buildings and industry to electricity was seen as a Global North priority, Amancio said. When GRA first raised the issue with ASEAN governments in January, the response was cautious.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis marked a turning point. As fuel supplies tightened and prices surged from March, governments began to see electrification as a way to strengthen energy security rather than a longer-term climate goal.

Global LNG deliveries have declined year-on-year every month since March 2026, highlighting Southeast Asia’s exposure to international gas supply disruptions. Source: International Energy Agency.

“There’s no other choice but to really protect the countries in the region from volatile fossil fuel markets,” Amancio said.

The Philippines offers one example of the policy response. The government declared a national energy emergency, while its Department of Energy issued guidance to help households install rooftop solar systems. The state-run Pag-IBIG Fund has also introduced loans to finance residential solar installations.

GRA emphasizes renewable-powered electrification to ensure that expanding electricity use does not deepen dependence on fossil fuels. This is particularly important as rising gas prices prompt some countries to switch back to coal.

The IEA’s Global Gas Security Review 2026, released before the start of COP31, forecasts a 3% decline in global LNG supply this year, the steepest annual fall on record. Natural gas consumption in Asia-Pacific is expected to drop by 1.5%, with higher LNG prices encouraging the power sector to switch from gas to coal.

While coal may offer short-term relief from gas supply pressures, reverting back to it raises emissions and prolongs dependence on fossil fuels. Amancio said electrification commitments should be backed by clean power development.

Business demand outpaces policy

The push for electrification is also gaining momentum among businesses, although policy and infrastructure constraints threaten to slow investment.

A survey of nearly 2,000 executives across 18 markets found that 99% of businesses surveyed in Indonesia expect to electrify their operations by 2035 or earlier, among the highest shares globally. In the Philippines, the figure was 97%, according to the poll, which was co-commissioned by GRA, E3G and We Mean Business Coalition.

Yet globally, 72% of respondents said government policies were moving too slowly to support the pace of electrification businesses need.

Amancio said clearer regulations for corporate power purchase agreements, grid access and transmission development would be critical to translating that ambition into investment.

Grid infrastructure remains a major obstacle, particularly in archipelagic countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

“Our grids are getting old. They need to be modernized,” Amancio said.

Many islands remain poorly interconnected even as governments pursue broader initiatives such as the ASEAN Power Grid. Amancio pointed to digitized permitting and one-stop-shop models in the Philippines as signs of progress, although manual approvals continue to delay projects.

Despite these constraints, renewable energy deployment is expected to accelerate across the region.

The IEA’s Renewables 2026 report forecasts that ASEAN, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa will nearly triple renewable capacity additions between 2026 and 2031. ASEAN is expected to record the highest annual solar PV additions among those regions by 2031.

ASEAN’s renewable energy capacity additions are projected to rise between 2026 and 2031, as solar PV drives global growth. Source: International Energy Agency.

Indonesia’s 100 GWp solar program, launched in August to replace diesel generation, accounts for most of the increase in 2030 renewable ambitions among emerging economies outside China.

The IEA estimates ASEAN’s renewable capacity growth could be 37% higher if governments accelerate reforms, including establishing direct power purchase agreements, approving transmission financing in Indonesia, strengthening grid investment in Vietnam and speeding up permitting in the Philippines.

Why one target may not fit Southeast Asia

Electricity already accounts for 23% of Southeast Asia’s final energy consumption, above the global average. Under current policies, however, that share is projected to reach only 27% by 2035, according to the IEA.

Amancio argued that a uniform 35% target would not reflect the region’s diverse energy systems and development priorities. He pointed to the COP30 Presidency’s roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels, launched on Nov. 3 , as a more useful starting point.

Rather than setting new commitments, the roadmap groups countries into 12 archetypes based on their exposure to fossil fuels and capacity to manage the transition. For countries with high fossil fuel dependence and rapidly growing energy demand, the roadmap emphasizes meeting new energy needs without locking in further fossil fuel use.

A similar distinction applies across Southeast Asia. Fuel-importing economies, including Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore, could credibly aim above 35% electrification to reduce their exposure to international fuel markets, Amancio said.

For fossil fuel producers such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei, managing economic dependence on fossil fuel revenues and exports is a greater concern. In Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Timor-Leste, expanding electricity access and clean cooking may be more meaningful measures of progress than a consumption-share target.

Amancio hopes the COP31 outcome will recognize electrification and encourage governments to develop national roadmaps suited to their circumstances.

Turning those ambitions into action, however, will require international financial support. Amancio argued that developing countries in Southeast Asia still need to grow their economies, and that access to finance will be critical to ensuring that growth is powered by renewable energy.

Both electrification and climate finance are expected to feature prominently at COP31. The Turkish Presidency has included clean energy transition and electrification among the 10 themes of its Action Agenda. Climate finance is also expected to be a major point of contention in formal negotiations, as developing countries press for progress toward the COP29 goal of mobilizing USD 300 billion annually by 2035.